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Serving Northern St. Louis County, Minnesota

Solar power is reaching a tipping point

Marshall Helmberger
Posted 7/16/14

There’s a whopper of a story, with global significance, that is suddenly dawning on a lot of people who pay attention to the energy markets. Solar-generated electricity has fallen so dramatically …

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Solar power is reaching a tipping point

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There’s a whopper of a story, with global significance, that is suddenly dawning on a lot of people who pay attention to the energy markets. Solar-generated electricity has fallen so dramatically in price in the past couple years that it’s now rivaling conventionally produced electricity on price.

This is not only good news in the fight to stem climate change, it’s good news for the global economy, since the installation of solar panels creates far more employment per dollar of investment than when invested in a traditional power plant. It’s also good news for the environment and public health, since it heralds the eventual retirement of other, far dirtier methods of electrical production.

As someone who has lived off-grid for over 30 years, this is a pretty remarkable development. Twenty-five years ago, an electricity-producing solar panel, known as a photovoltaic, cost about $8-$10 per watt to buy, and that didn’t include the related components. That price slowly declined, to about $5 per watt as of the mid-2000s.

Today, a 200-watt panel that would have cost $1,600 just 25 years ago, and $1,000 as recently as 2008 can be purchased from any of a number of sources for as little as $180. That’s more than a five-fold reduction in the price of solar panels in just the past five years. And many of those in the industry say the price will almost certainly continue to drop.

What’s more, that $180 solar panel is significantly more efficient at converting light energy, particularly on cloudy days, into usable electricity than those far more expensive models ever were.

The financial implications are breathtaking, and have already caught the attention of investment bankers and other major international lenders. Indeed, the British bank Barclays, just last month, downgraded the entire U.S. electrical utility industry and their corporate stock as a result of this sea change in solar panel prices. The upshot is this— the era of big, centralized energy production is probably on its way out.

The solar industry has very suddenly and dramatically reached a tipping point, where it is now cheaper in most parts of the world, and even in many parts of the U.S., to produce power by solar panels than by conventional means.

While solar still represents a tiny fraction of total electricity production in either the U.S. or globally, markets can and do react very quickly to these kinds of developments, and it’s now happening in dramatic fashion. The International Business Times reported earlier this month that as much as two-thirds of the $7.7 trillion that will be invested worldwide on new electrical production by 2030 will be in renewable energy, primarily solar and wind. About half of that is expected to be spent in Asia, where new solar installations are now likely to exceed coal and gas projects combined. In other words, solar power may not be a major factor today, but it will be within 10-15 years.

Of course, the rap on solar power, as with wind, is that the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. There’s no question that a reliable electricity grid will need to be powered by a variety of sources. Even when the sun isn’t shining, for example, the wind may well be blowing, and vice versa. Even so, other baseload options will be necessary, such as natural gas, biogas, hydropower, and even nuclear, perhaps.

Most people recognize that effective storage of electrical energy is the key to bringing renewable energy into the mainstream— and the progress on that front has been nearly as dramatic. So-called flow batteries are already being pilot-tested for utility-scale power storage and so far all signs point to these devices as a major advance.

If so, the days of big, centralized power plants could well be numbered, replaced by widely-distributed, rooftop power production, combined with community or regionally-based storage. And it may not even take the stiff regulatory hand of government to achieve such a vision— the market will likely do the job. Government could help clear the way through continuing the kinds of incentives, such as tax credits and utility rebates, that have been available for some time.

Such a transition in the energy economy would provide many real benefits, including a new, major growth industry that will create millions of jobs worldwide. It’s worth noting that centralized power plants are very capital-intensive, but don’t create as many jobs as a more labor-intensive industry, like solar panel manufacturing and installation.

It’s an encouraging development at a time when the prevailing view on climate change has been despair at the prospect of generating the political will and technical capacity to get a real handle on carbon emissions. The dramatic drop in the price of solar panels, combined with major advance in energy storage, is helping to address the technical constraints, and that has the potential to significantly shift the political dynamics of addressing climate change.

The changes also have practical effects closer to home as well. Given the dramatic drop in solar panel prices, combined with new energy-saving appliances, it is highly economical for anyone building a new home or cabin in rural parts of our area to include photovoltaics as part of the building plan. Indeed, that’s already happening in many places, in both the U.S. and around the world. When those panels are amortized over the course of a standard mortgage, the energy savings, combined with available tax credits and other incentives, make for a very smart investment, one that will only improve over time as the cost of traditional sources of energy increases.

That investment is a virtual no-brainer for those building in more remote areas, where power lines don’t go. In many cases, for the cost of bringing in a power line, a home or cabin owner could easily install a state-of-the-art solar array with battery storage, inverters, and generator back-up that would provide for all of their electrical needs.

The drop in price means it’s a whole new ballgame in the world of solar power— and the implications are extraordinary.