REGIONAL— Democrats had high hopes for big electoral gains on Nov. 3 this year, including here in Minnesota, where DFLers hoped to flip the state Senate and expand their control in the state House. Yet, while Joe Biden easily won the state over Donald Trump, and Tina Smith was re-elected to the U.S. Senate, Democrats largely fell short of their expectations elsewhere.
Republicans picked up a congressional seat in Minnesota with the defeat of longtime Congressman Collin Peterson. And the Democrats failed to flip the First District congressional seat, despite a slew of ethical complaints against incumbent Republican Jim Hagedorn.
This was another year in which the DFL saw the impact of its fading influence in northeastern Minnesota, particularly on the Iron Range, where the DFL has dominated the region’s politics for generations.
While DFL legislative candidates in the region generally hung on, in some cases, it was by the narrowest of margins. Rep. Julie Sandstede in District 6A, may face a recount after winning re-election by just 41 votes. Rep. Rob Ecklund, of International Falls, had been behind much of election night, until a big vote margin from Cook County put him over the top against Thomas Manninen, of Littlefork, by about 1,200 votes.
Even the dean of the Iron Range delegation, Sen. Tom Bakk, who is used to winning by 30-point margins, squeaked to re-election with a ten-point spread against Republican Christopher Hogan. “I’d have to guess we saw more GOP votes than ever in my district,” said Bakk, reflecting on his narrower margin.
Even so, these DFL victories reflected a substantial degree of ticket-splitting, notes DFL House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler. Ecklund’s district, for example, went narrowly for Trump, so he was clearly able to peel off some Trump voters to hold onto his seat. Sandstede faced a similar challenge. Whether those results reflect a long-term trend, or Trump’s unique popularity with many working class voters, remains to be seen. “I don’t think a Mitt Romney would do nearly as well in northern Minnesota,” said Winkler.
While DFLers were helped by ticket-splitting in northeastern Minnesota, he said the opposite was true in some suburban districts, where significant numbers of voters backed Biden, then voted Republican on the rest of their ballot, a trend that cost the DFL two suburban House seats. Those suburban voters had more political clout than ever this year. Winkler noted that, for the first time, the suburban vote exceeded the entire outstate Minnesota vote.
Bakk was most disappointed by the DFL’s apparent failure to regain the majority in the Minnesota Senate. As of this week, it appears the GOP will hold on to a narrow 34-33 margin in that body, portending two more years of divided and divisive governance in St. Paul.
Bakk put the onus for the DFL’s struggles in down-ballot races on what he called “self-inflicted wounds.” He said a leftward tilt of the party on issues such as public safety and the environment, was hurting candidates in less urban parts of the state.
He said a resolution opposed to copper-nickel mining, which the DFL Central Committee approved in September, likely contributed to the decline in support for the party’s candidates in the region. “But it was more than mining,” said Bakk. “This whole law and order thing, the talk about defunding police. Republicans played that up and it hurt the DFL in some suburbs.”
Oddly, it appeared that concerns about urban rioting may have played a bigger role in far-flung rural districts than they did in the Twin Cities or its suburbs. Rep. Ecklund’s rival Manninen, focused heavily on that issue during his stronger-than-expected challenge of the three-term incumbent.
Winkler said it’s too early to draw conclusions. “I have more questions than answers at this point,” although he acknowledged that the public safety concerns played a role. He’s less certain whether the issue helped or hurt DFLers overall. “There’s pretty broad understanding that some changes in policing are necessary,” he said.
If public safety was a concern for some voters, those who lived closest to the protests appeared to back Democrats by wider margins. Both Biden and Sen. Tina Smith saw their biggest gains in the Twin Cities, where the killing of George Floyd ignited months of civil unrest, including riots and looting. While Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s margins in most parts of Minnesota, he saw his biggest improvement in Minnesota’s Fifth District, home to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, where Biden padded his winning margin by an additional 51,461 votes. That was the biggest improvement over 2016 margins of any congressional district in Minnesota. The Third District, which includes southern and western metro suburbs, wasn’t far behind, providing a net gain for Biden of 49,710 votes over 2016.
Only the Seventh and the Eighth districts provided a net gain for Trump, albeit narrowly. Trump’s net gain of 2,314 votes over his margin four years ago in the Eighth, was actually a narrower win than 2016 on a percentage basis as fewer voters peeled off this year to back third party candidates in the presidential contest.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state by just 44,000 votes. By contrast, Biden won this year with a 234,000-vote margin statewide.