REGIONAL— The number of no-shows for overnight travel within the Boundary Waters declined last year for the second year in a row, according to data recently released by the U.S. Forest Service.
About 13.6 percent of the people reserving permits for overnight wilderness travel during the quota season failed to show up and failed to cancel their reservation last year. Canceled permit reservations are re-entered into the quota system and become available for other potential visitors, while permits reserved by no-shows are lost to other users.
The number of no-shows peaked at 16.2 percent of all reservations in 2022 but has declined since. In actual numbers, no-shows peaked in 2022 at 4,276 and declined to 3,572 as of last year, a 17 percent drop over the past two years.
No-shows have become a bigger issue since the Forest Service reduced the number of visitor permits during the quota season by about 13 percent, effective in 2022. The quota season for the BWCAW runs from May 1-Sept. 30.
Those who reserve permits for motorized day use in the wilderness have consistently been the most likely not to show up. Out of 3,793 day-use motor permits reserved in 2024, fully one-third (or 1,236) of reservation holders failed to make use of them, a rate that has held roughly steady over the past three years. About 15 percent of overnight motorized permit reservations went unused last year, while ten percent of overnight paddle permits went unused.
The number of no-shows among those reserving permits for overnight paddling has seen the biggest drop over the past two years, with total no-shows at 2,110 last year compared to 2,572 in 2022.
While many local residents appear to believe there’s an organized effort by groups opposed to motorized use in the BWCAW to reserve motor permits to keep motorboats out, Forest Service spokesperson Joy Vandrie discounts that notion.
“There is no evidence suggesting that outside organizations are deliberately reserving permits to restrict motorized access,” she stated. “The Forest Service is actively monitoring use patterns to ensure fair and equitable access.”
The Forest Service’s own visitor use data confirms that 571 of those reserving overnight motor permits last year made the effort to cancel those permits, making them available to others. By contrast, only 168 of them were no-shows.
Among motorized day-use permit reservations, roughly half of permit holders opted to cancel their reservations prior to their planned visit.
Those making reservations have a modest financial incentive to cancel their permits once they know they won’t be able to use them. The Forest Service charges a minimum deposit of $32 for every reservation and those who cancel at least two days ahead of their planned trip can receive a refund of all but a $6 reservation fee. That’s almost certainly one reason that most of those who reserve a permit, but later can’t make it, opt to cancel ahead of time. In 2024, a record 11,244 parties opted to cancel a reservation, far more than the 3,572 who simply failed to show up.
According to the Forest Service data, 95 percent of no-shows are from individuals who make reservations on their own, while the remainder are from reservations made through commercial outfitters.
Forest Service officials say the no-show rate is likely driven by multiple factors.
“No-show rates increased significantly across all permit types during 2020–2021, peaked in 2022, and have since declined,” noted Vandrie. “This trend is not unique to motorized permits and reflects a broader shift in reservation behavior—likely influenced by pandemic uncertainty and high demand. We’ve seen some visitors reserving multiple permits early in the season in case their plans change later.”
The Forest Service’s reservation system has faced criticism in recent years for making all permit reservations available on the last Wednesday of January, several months before any permits are likely to be used and often before parties hoping to visit the wilderness have been able to finalize plans.
Will higher fees help?
For businesses, like outfitters, that rely on wilderness travelers, no-shows are potentially lost business. Which is why some are hopeful that the Forest Service’s proposal to increase wilderness user fees will encourage those who reserve permits to cancel them at www.recreation.gov if their plans change.
The Forest Service is currently weighing public comment on a proposal to increase the trip fee for adults from the current $16 to $40. Under the plan, the trip fee for youths would increase from the current $8 to $20.