REGIONAL—Feeling like the November gloom has come early? You’re not alone, after the North Country has experienced a remarkably cloudy, wet, and decidedly cool stretch of weather over the past …
REGIONAL—Feeling like the November gloom has come early? You’re not alone, after the North Country has experienced a remarkably cloudy, wet, and decidedly cool stretch of weather over the past three weeks.
“This is really more typical of Halloween,” said state climatologist Pete Boulay this week. It’s a persistent and not terribly welcome weather pattern, he said, and it’s been affecting much of the state, particularly in northern Minnesota, where average temperatures have run four-to-seven degrees colder than normal in the past couple weeks. Many parts of the North Country even reported a trace of snow last Friday, Sept. 28, just to remind us that winter is definitely coming.
An active jet stream that has pushed a series of low pressure systems into the region in recent weeks is behind the clouds and frequent precipitation. “To get nice stretches of weather, we really need high pressure to set in and stay there,” said Geoffrey Grobhocinski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Duluth. “We haven’t had much of that lately,” he added.
The normal high for Oct. 5 in the region is 57 degrees, while the current forecast is calling for clouds, showers, and a high of 41 degrees on Oct. 5 this year.
The persistent clouds, on the other hand, have kept overnight temperatures somewhat milder than usual, with temperatures averaging in the mid-to-upper 30s. Friday’s low, for example, is forecast to be 36 degrees, which is about six degrees warmer than the average minimum of 30 degrees for Oct 5.
If you’re looking for relief from the current weather pattern, you’re probably out of luck. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center is forecasting continued cooler and wetter conditions for northern Minnesota right through October.
That pattern could well shift, however, as we head further into winter. According to Boulay, the Climate Prediction Center has put the chance of an el Niño developing this winter at 65-70 percent. If so, that significantly increases the odds for a warmer-than-average winter in northern Minnesota.
Could be were pampered
Now running ten degrees below average
Been comparable to Halloween
They’re pretty confident about a cold October.
The three month outlook
Oct-Dec still above normal across the whole country.
Neutral with a developing el nino
Last update on el Nino
50-55 percent this fall
65-70 percent chance by winter.
For us, that means above normal temps, precip uncertain.
We have had cold Novembers under el Nino
Geoffrey Grobhocinski- meteorologist
We’ve had a lot of areas of low pressure, they’re what bring the cloud cover and rain.
To get nice stretches
Haven’t seen much
We’re getting stuck on the cold side for the most part, the lows