REGIONAL— Minnesotans may be living through meteorological history this month as it appears many parts of the state are on track to beat the all-time record for the mildest December ever here in the North Star state.
It was nearly 150 years ago, in 1877-78, the last time that Minnesotans experienced a winter anywhere close to this mild. It’s been dubbed “The Year Without A Winter” and it was so out of the norm that most of the state’s weather observers assumed it was a record that would never fall.
But state climatologist Pete Boulay says this may be the year. “That really looks like where we’re headed,” he said. “I never thought I’d live to see it.”
The only reliable weather station in northeastern Minnesota back in 1877 was at the Duluth harbor, where temperature records were typically much milder than at Duluth’s current weather station at the airport, located well away from the shore of Lake Superior.
Even so, this month’s temperatures at the airport could potentially prove warmer than those recorded at the harbor back in 1877. “That would be truly amazing if that happens,” said Boulay.
As of Dec. 21, with ten days yet to go in the month, Duluth’s airport has recorded an average December temperature of 28.0 degrees, a full nine degrees above average for the month, which puts it in second place among the warmest Decembers in Duluth history. In 1877, Duluth’s harbor recorded a monthly average of 32.7 degrees. That’s a 5.7 degree difference from the airport’s readings so far this year, which would seem likely to leave the 1877 mark intact. Yet, as of this writing, the forecast called for Duluth to experience a full week of temperatures above freezing—even at night— which is likely to increase Duluth’s average monthly temperature by several degrees. “It might be a photo finish,” said Boulay.
Other than Duluth, International Falls has the longest period of record in northeastern Minnesota and this December appears to be well on the way to leaving the border city’s previous December record in the dust. Back in 1913, residents of the Falls enjoyed a December with a monthly average temperature of 22.8 degrees F. With ten days yet remaining in the month this year, the average temperature so far in the Falls is running at a jaw-dropping 25.8 degrees, or three full degrees above the previous record. And with astonishingly mild weather forecasted to continue right through the end of the month, it appears the city will almost certainly set a new record for the warmest December once the books are closed on 2023.
While other local weather stations in the North Country lack the long periods of record that meteorologists look for, this December is almost certain to be the warmest on record at just about every location. As of this writing, Tower, Orr, and Kabetogama are all running 10.7 degrees above average for the month, while Ely is running 9.4 degrees higher.
The rest of winter?
While the weather could certainly turn more winter-like the rest of the season, the experience of 1877-78 suggests that may not happen. While January of 1878 turned somewhat colder than December, the weather turned remarkably mild again in February and March.
Recent research into the factors behind that winter’s remarkable temperatures suggest that it may have coincided with another strong el Niño pattern in the Pacific. While the el Niño current, which periodically brings warmer water temperatures to the eastern Pacific, wasn’t known of in 1877, a review of ship’s logs and water temperature readings from that era point to unusually warm water temperatures there at that time.
A similarly strong el Niño pattern has established itself this year and that is likely a contributor to our mild conditions. Boulay said that climate change, which has led to a steady warming of winters in Minnesota and many other places, is potentially also playing a role.
Impacts of mild conditions
While the warm weather has made outdoor activities more enjoyable for those who don’t like the cold normally associated with December in Minnesota, it could have economic impacts if it continues. According to press reports back in 1877-78, that extraordinarily mild winter had negative consequences for transportation of people and goods. Winter normally froze the dirt roads and rivers, providing a stable base for transporting goods via sleighs. Without the cold, transportation bogged down for months as roads remained muddy in many parts of the state and rivers lacked sufficient ice cover to support sleighs.
While the use of sleighs for winter transportation faded out a century ago, a continuation of the recent weather patterns could have serious repercussions in many parts of northern Minnesota, where winter recreation like snowmobiling, cross country skiing, and dogsledding draw large numbers of visitors to the region in a typical winter, filling area hotels, restaurants, and bars with customers. Barring a change in the weather, this winter could prove a bust for those who rely on good snow conditions to keep business hopping.