REGIONAL— Winter lovers looking for a ray of hope in the extended forecast aren’t getting much help from Mother Nature. The extraordinarily mild weather that has settled over most of North America this fall and early winter is poised to continue, at least well into January, according to the latest long-range models issued by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

Other forecasters are seeing a similar trend in the long-range outlooks. “We see impressive signals that the overall mild pattern that got rolling in the central and eastern states during October and November will hold through December and into January,” said AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. He credited the strengthening El Niño for the extraordinary warmth and said a strong west-to-east jet stream may well keep Arctic air bottled up in the far North well into the winter.

Indeed, the mild conditions could last all season, posing the potential for one of the mildest winters ever in the U.S. and much of Canada, all thanks to the warmest water temperatures ever seen across a wide swath of the eastern Pacific Ocean. The unusually strong El Niño conditions typically bring mild winter weather to much of the U.S., but the strength of this year’s exceptionally warm ocean current could lead to conditions surpassing the winter of 1998-1999, the last time a powerful El Niño affected winter weather in the U.S.

The probability for continued mild conditions is strongest across the northern tier of U.S. states, and is most likely from northern North Dakota through northern Minnesota and into the Great Lakes region. So far this month, average temperatures across northern St. Louis and Lake counties are running anywhere from 15-17 degrees above normal, an extraordinary departure. And that trend is currently forecast to continue across northern Minnesota right through April, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

While the mild conditions have kept heating costs in check, they’ve also kept anxious ice anglers stuck at home. While many smaller area lakes had a few inches of ice by the end of November, last week’s snow and the past ten days of mild weather have left those lakes questionable for ice fishing.

As for the bigger and deeper waters, many remain open water.

“Big Bay is wide open,” said Lake Vermilion fishing guide Cliff Wagenbach, an enthusiastic ice angler who frequents Big Bay.

“Last year, I had a house out the day after deer season and the fish were biting like crazy,” he said. This year, he’s says he’s ready to roll, but is stuck home waiting for ice.

It could be a long wait. The extended forecast calls for well above average temperatures for at least the next ten days, with the coldest nighttime lows only dropping to the mid-teens. That means bigger lakes, like Vermilion, could be open this year right up to Christmas— blowing away the previous record for latest ice-in, set back in 1998 during the last major El Niño event. That year, Vermilion didn’t freeze over entirely until Dec. 13. Burntside, a deep lake that’s traditionally one of the last in the area to ice-up, held out until Dec. 22 that same year. Both those records are looking increasingly likely to fall this year.

According to Intellicast, the average high temperature for the area for Dec. 11 is 22 degrees, with an average low of minus 3.