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Serving Northern St. Louis County, Minnesota

Above average temperatures continue in area

Except for the February cold snap, the area has run well above normal throughout the winter

Marshall Helmberger
Posted 3/17/21

REGIONAL— As the snow steadily disappears from the North Country weeks ahead of normal, it’s apparent that the impact of this winter’s la Niña was much less than expected. La …

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Above average temperatures continue in area

Except for the February cold snap, the area has run well above normal throughout the winter

Posted

REGIONAL— As the snow steadily disappears from the North Country weeks ahead of normal, it’s apparent that the impact of this winter’s la Niña was much less than expected. La Niña is the term for a cold Pacific current that alternates with its warmer opposite, known as el Niño, both of which tend to impact weather patterns throughout much of North America.
In Minnesota, the la Niña current is most often associated with colder and snowier winters, and that’s what many forecasters were predicting this year for the Upper Midwest. Instead, except for two weeks in February, it was one of the mildest winters on record.
“Mid-February was an island of cold in the middle of a very warm winter,” said Pete Boulay, Minnesota state climatologist. That cold spell was intense while it lasted, giving northern Minnesotans a taste of life in a place like Yakutsk in northeastern Siberia. Indeed, across the North Country, the temperature during that two-week stretch averaged anywhere from 15 to nearly 20 degrees below zero, with an overnight low of minus-50 reported east of Ely and plenty of minus-40s around the area.
For the two-week stretch, the average temperature ran anywhere from 20-29 degrees below normal, a departure from the norm that is exceptional over such a span. According to Boulay, the region has probably seen bigger departures, but over shorter periods of time. “The trick for this one was how long it lasted,” said Boulay.
But for that two-week cold snap, the region was headed toward one of its mildest winters on record. As it was, the meteorological winter (Dec.-Feb.) ended in International Falls as the 13th warmest on record, according to Boulay. Climatologists turn to International Falls for comparison, since it has the longest period of record of any weather station in the region.
And those mild conditions quickly returned as the polar vortex receded north by the last week in February. So far in March, temperatures have been running eight-to-ten degrees above average, with temperatures forecast to reach the mid-50s, or as much as 20 degrees above average, by the weekend. The average high in the area as of March 19 is 36 degrees, with an average low of 14.
And with the exception of last week’s storm, which dumped six-to-nine inches of snow on the area, the region has experienced an exceptionally sunny and dry 2021 so far.
Even with the roughly half-inch of liquid contained in last week’s snow, the area has still seen less than half its normal precipitation so far this year.
“The la Niña didn’t behave like it should have,” said Boulay.
And there’s little sign it’s going to change that behavior anytime soon. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks show a strong probability that above-normal temperatures will continue. With snow rapidly disappearing, the region could experience significant spring fire danger before the month is out.