REGIONAL- Tuesday’s COVID case report from the Minnesota Department of Health brought a little better news for a state still in the throes of the second-worst wave of the pandemic so far.
On Tuesday, MDH reported 9,042 new cases from over the weekend, approximately 25 percent fewer cases than the previous weekend report on Dec. 7. That number is consistent with a concurrent drop in the average new cases per day. Between Dec. 8 and Tuesday, the state averaged 3,429 new cases per day, down 27 percent from 4,725 new cases daily the week prior.
Taken in conjunction with Mayo Clinic projections for the next two weeks that cases will continue to decline, the reports are evidence that the state may have finally passed the peak of the surge that began in August and rapidly accelerated in October and November. However, state health officials have warned in the past that short-term dips in case numbers such as this can’t be considered a trend until additional data is added, and none made any statements on Tuesday suggesting the surge is on the decline. As with the recent Thanksgiving holiday, cases could tick upward again after all of the family gatherings, increased travel, and group activities associated with Christmas.
The most recent data reported Tuesday on the St. Louis County COVID dashboard showed another positive indicator, at least for now. The seven-day case average of 180.9 on Dec. 3, the second highest of the current surge, dropped to 103.7 on Dec. 9. The last time the county experienced such a sharp decline was as the state was emerging from the massive Nov./Dec. 2020 surge.
The news is of little solace, however, for the state’s hospitals, which during the past month have seen higher patient demands than at any time during the pandemic. Since hospitalization numbers rise and fall weeks after case number variations, the crunch on healthcare systems continued unabated for the time being.
On Sunday, newspapers across the state ran full-page ads from the CEOs of nine Minnesota health systems titled “We’re heartbroken. We’re overwhelmed,” and pleading with the public to get vaccinated and take COVID precautions.
“Our emergency departments are overfilled, and we have patients in every bed in our hospitals. This pandemic has strained our operations and demoralized many people on our teams,” the ad read. “Now an ominous question looms: will you be able to get care from your local community hospital without delay? Today, that’s uncertain.”
Last Friday, no adult intensive care beds were available in any of the hospitals in northeast Minnesota, and as of Tuesday only one had become available in the region. Statewide, 57 of 130 hospitals reported Tuesday that they had no beds available for adult non-ICU care, and 54 of 68 with adult ICU units had no spaces available. Pediatric hospital care is also being taxed, with 131 of the state’s 146 pediatric ICU beds and 491 of 527 non-ICU beds filled.
Omicron ahead?
If the Delta-driven surge is indeed on its way down, the respite could be short-lived if the new Omicron variant gains a foothold in the state.
MDH confirmed the state’s second COVID case caused by the Omicron variant on Friday, Dec. 10, a vaccinated adult connected to Minnesota State University-Mankato who developed mild symptoms on Nov. 30 and has since recovered. The individual had not traveled overseas.
Only about 2,000 COVID test samples per week are sent to the state health laboratory and subjected to the genetic sequencing necessary to identify specific variants, making it highly likely there are more Omicron cases that haven’t been identified.
With over 50 variations from previous coronavirus strains, the Omicron variant appears to be more contagious than the highly contagious Delta variant, and it is also more adept at infecting fully vaccinated people, researchers have found.
A briefing by health officials at the Centers for Disease Control on Tuesday warned that Omicron is spreading rapidly in the U.S. and could cause a massive COVID surge as soon as January, while Delta-driven cases are still running high and in the middle of influenza season, a combination that could put even greater strain on the healthcare system.
However, CDC officials also presented an alternative modeling scenario in which a smaller Omicron wave doesn’t occur until springtime.
As of Tuesday, 32 states and Puerto Rico have reported Omicron-variant COVID cases, up from 20 the week before.
Studies of Omicron cases overseas, particularly in South Africa, where the variant was first identified, have revealed that Omicron cases have lower rates of hospitalizations and deaths than Delta, but that vaccinated people who haven’t had a booster shot are more susceptible to becoming infected by Omicron. Only 19 days after the first reported cases, South Africa hit a daily record of 37,875 new cases as Omicron has become the nation’s dominant strain.
State health officials said last week that the same tools used to combat the Delta variant – vaccinations, boosters, and standard COVID precautions such as masking and testing – would be effective in combating Omicron. However, less was known last week about the potential rate of Omicron spread, which could outpace increased efforts aimed at vaccinations and booster shots.
Local data
Weekly case counts for the six North Country zip codes monitored by the Timberjay showed mixed results for the week. The 37 new cases reported in Ely was 13 fewer than reported the week before. The case count in Embarrass fell from eight last week to six in the most recent report.
Meanwhile Orr saw an increase in new cases, from two last week to seven new cases in the past seven days. Cook reported six new cases, up from five last week, while Tower reported five new cases, up from four the week before. Soudan’s new cast count also jumped, from three last week, to four in the most recent report.