Reaping what we’ve sown

There are consequences to punishing and bad-mouthing your neighbor, and Minnesota is going to be feeling the effects. The bad-mouthing, of course, isn’t coming from those of us who live in Minnesota, but that won’t limit the impact to our economy from the disrespectful statements and actions by President Trump toward Canada, its people, and those from so many other once-friendly nations.
Last year, Minnesota played host to 642,000 foreign visitors, about six-in-ten who came from our neighbor to the north. According to Explore Minnesota, the total number of foreign visitors was expected to increase to about 800,000 by 2028, but it’s a fair bet that the state won’t see growth in foreign visits for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the number of foreign travelers who come to Minnesota each year is almost certain to fall. Early indications are that the number could fall dramatically, with some Canadian travel businesses reporting bookings to the U.S. are down 70-90 percent. Foreign visitors spent over $500 million in Minnesota last year, which directly supported about 125,000 direct jobs in Minnesota, and another 50,000 indirect jobs. Trump’s belligerence toward Canada and other western countries will almost certainly reduce employment in the state’s leisure and hospitality sector as well as local economies in border communities, like International Falls, which rely heavily on Canadian shoppers.
In Minnesota, Canadians come for a variety of reasons, but most come for recreation or to shop, taking advantage of generally lower prices for most consumer goods and gas. Those kinds of trips are likely to fall sharply this year as Trump’s talk of Canada as the 51st state and his unjustified tariffs on our largest trading partner, anger and upset our Canadian friends. Canada imported $349 billion worth of U.S. goods last year, by far the most of any country and maintained one of the smallest trade surpluses with the U.S. of any major economy. And that doesn’t include the value of goods that individual Canadians purchase through cross-border shopping trips. Canada is also a reliable and trustworthy source for strategic minerals needed by the U.S. along with the heavy crude oil that provides the fuel we use in the Upper Midwest.
Canada is exactly the kind of trading partner we would want to reward, not punish with exorbitant tariffs and flagrant disrespect. The origins of President Trump’s intense dislike of Canada have been the subject of much speculation, although it seems to have its origins in his personal animosity toward former Liberal Party Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Regardless, a president operating in good faith sets aside his or her personal gripes and enacts policies that are beneficial to their country. Needlessly disrespecting a country that provides an enormous and positive economic impact on the U.S., and Minnesota, is self-destructive.
The Trump administration only makes it worse through its increasing hostility to foreign travelers to the U.S. Recent horror stories of Canadians and Europeans, and increasingly even U.S. citizens, being hassled by customs officials at ports of entry have prompted several western countries to post advisories for travel to the U.S. Such advisories used to be reserved for war-torn or politically hostile or unstable countries, yet the U.S. is now well on its way to being viewed as a pariah, even among our long-term former allies.
It’s not just border hassles, either. Media reports have cited an increasing number of incidents involving lengthy detention of legitimate visitors, sometimes for more than a week, in crowded and unpleasant federal facilities. Such stories, which have received wide coverage in other countries, have cast a pall on would-be foreign visitors, who are canceling planned trips by the thousands.
Most Canadians aren’t about to risk border troubles simply to save on some groceries, especially at a time when most are angry at America for electing a bully as president.
Let’s be clear. This is entirely unnecessary and unwise. We’re not talking about illegal immigration, here. Canadians and Europeans aren’t seeking to live in the U.S., especially now. Indeed, media reports show the opposite. Canadians are selling their American winter getaways in places like Florida at a record pace, and that selloff is hitting property values.
While Trump’s bullying tactics and threats may have worked at times in the business world, they’re a recipe for economic disaster on the global stage. America has always thrived when being seen as an open country that welcomes tourists. The Trump administration’s extraordinary xenophobia has changed that almost overnight. Minnesota’s economy is guaranteed to suffer as a result.