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Serving Northern St. Louis County, Minnesota

Region faces elevated spring flood risk

Marshall Helmberger
Posted 2/15/23

REGIONAL—The North Country is facing the prospect of more flooding this spring, although an unusually limited amount of frost in the ground this winter could allow more of the melting snowpack …

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Region faces elevated spring flood risk

Posted

REGIONAL—The North Country is facing the prospect of more flooding this spring, although an unusually limited amount of frost in the ground this winter could allow more of the melting snowpack to work its way into the ground. That should help the region avoid the major flooding that hit the area last spring.
As of this week, the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Duluth is reporting an elevated risk of minor spring flooding in the months ahead. As of this week, a NWS gauge in Duluth reported just four inches of frost in the ground, a far cry from the several feet of frost that is more typical of a northern Minnesota winter. But mild temperatures and early heavy snow helped keep frost from penetrating the ground, according to NWS meteorologist Bryan Howell.
Most other indicators, however, are pointing to an above average risk of spring flooding.
Most of the snow that’s fallen across the region this winter came with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark, which meant the snow had a higher moisture content than is typical.
In much of northeastern Minnesota, the water content in the snowpack ranges from the 70th-100th percentile, with estimates ranging from 2-8 inches of water content. That’s actually somewhat higher than the water content in the snowpack last year at this same point in the winter.
That was before this week’s storm, which added more than half an inch of liquid precipitation equivalent to the snowpack across most of the region— an exceptionally wet storm for mid-February in northern Minnesota.
Wetter storms, with increased amounts of mixed precipitation, have been a trend in northern Minnesota in recent years, and are a likely signal of the changing climate. Climate scientists have noted that warmer air holds more water vapor, allowing for heavier precipitation than was typical in the past.
While mid-winter this year had been relatively dry in much of northern Minnesota, that trend appears to be changing. In addition to this week’s sloppy snowfall, both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for above average snowfall. The 90-day (Feb.-Apr.) outlook also calls for above average precipitation. A similar pattern beginning last year at this time prompted historic flooding in parts of the region.