REGIONAL- COVID-19 is making the news again as measures of the virus’s activity have been ticking upwards in recent weeks, somewhat mirroring late summer increases in COVID levels in 2020, 2021, and 2022.
Indicators in Minnesota have also been on the rise, and percentage increases could sound alarming.
Hospitalizations for COVID are now the standard measure the Centers for Disease Control uses to gauge community COVID activity, and nationally hospital admission have been on the rise. Hospitalizations the last week in July rose 12 percent over the prior week, according to the CDC, from 8,047 cases to 9,056 cases. By comparison, hospital admissions at the height of January’s huge Omicron wave topped 44,000 per week.
However, the CDC’s county-by-county map of community COVID levels indicates that nearly the entire country is rated low for COVID activity. Only ten counties, including Lake of the Woods and Roseau in Minnesota, are rated medium. Alabama, with four counties marked as medium, has the most of any state.
Zooming in closer to home, Minnesota has seen a small increase in hospitalizations, with the Minnesota Department of Health reporting six days of double-digit admissions in the past two weeks. And it’s here where reporting by percentages can be somewhat deceiving. From July 13 to July 20, daily hospital admissions in the state increased 30 percent, but that represents less than three cases per day, 7.7 to 10.
St. Louis County reported four new hospitalizations for COVID in the week ended July 29, the same as reported the prior week. That translates to two admissions per 100,000 people.
However, wastewater analysis conducted by the U of M suggests a fair amount of virus has been circulating in the area recently, indicating potential cases that haven’t led to hospitalizations. In the past four weeks, the COVID viral load in wastewater in the Northeast region shot up 168 percent, the second largest increase in the state. The increase appears to have leveled off, as the one-week measure indicated a zero percent increase.
Assessing the risk
In a July 27 podcast, noted infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm highlighted the challenge of interpreting what the overall big picture is for COVID today.
“More and more, I feel like one of the biggest challenges I’m having in terms of providing updates and information on COVID relates to finding the appropriate balance that exists when it comes to the risk presented by this virus,” he said.
Osterholm pointed out a story published by CBS News titled “U.S. Sees Biggest Rise in COVID-19 Hospitalizations Since December” as one where reporting based on percentages is misleading.
“Read that and you think we’re back at it again,” he said. “On a factual basis this is correct. But is this a notable rise? Well, at this point, I don’t think we can conclude that. One of the reasons I say that is because COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. are now at the lowest levels we’ve seen since the start of the pandemic. I believe that these numbers we’re seeing today reflect the very, very low numbers, where increases percentage wise can surely be misunderstood. I don’t say this to shrug off any possible signs of an uptick. Rather, I say it’s because I’ve already heard comments from some of the talking heads out there in public health implying that this signals the start of a late summer surge.”
“The data we have supporting when surges occur typically revolves around the issue of a new variant emerging that is either more infectious or has more immune evasion,” Osterholm continued. “And at this point, we just don’t see any variant on the horizon that matches up with this great increase in infectiousness or in the ability to evade immune protection. It’s not that we won’t see that happen again, but I am yet convinced that we will not see these big spikes in cases that everyone is talking about.”
Multiple new booster formulations are on the way, although the Food and Drug Administration has yet to approve any. It could be September or October before new boosters are ready to distribute.
What’s unclear at this point, Osterholm said, is who will be recommended to get them.
“The purpose of these vaccines is really to reduce severe illness, hospitalizations and deaths, particularly for those who have underlying health conditions or who are older,” he said. “For this reason, there isn’t widespread demand for booster doses among those who are not at high risk of severe COVID illness due to age or chronic health conditions. It is my hope that they will be available to anyone who wants them. We’ll have to wait and see what the final recommendations will be.”
Free tests available
Last January, MDH announced a “last chance” for Minnesotans to receive free at-home COVID tests. But according to Public Information Officer Garry Bowman, that last chance is still available, as the MDH webpage for orders is still up and running.
“The program is still active, and people can still order free at-home tests from the state,” Bowman told the Timberjay. “There is still inventory. Minnesotans can order up to four kits/month at https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/testsites/athome.html and MDH plans to keep it going well into the fall.”
The federal government’s program offering test kits ended June 1 following the official end of the COVID public health emergency in May. Health insurance providers are no longer required to provide free COVID tests, although they have the option to provide them if they so choose.