REGIONAL- If St. Louis County falls in line with the rest of the state, it might have already passed the peak of the Omicron variant COVID wave. Or, county residents could be right in the midst of it. Or the worst may be yet to come. It all depends on where one looks for predictions.
Models predicting trends in coronavirus cases have been around almost since the beginning of the pandemic. Those early models were hampered by a lack of data and research about the virus itself, and many were of limited value. No model is designed to predict specific case levels, hospitalizations, and deaths, but after nearly two years of research the trends they project have become more refined and more closely reflect what’s happening with the pandemic.
The Mayo Clinic’s COVID modeling projects that Minnesota will hit its record-breaking Omicron peak next week on Jan. 26, which would be welcomed by a healthcare system strained to the max by the influx of new Omicron-related cases. As hospitalization and death rates typically trail initial infection numbers by two to three weeks, hospitals will likely continue to feel the effects of the peak well into February.
Mayo modelers have adjusted their predictions based on experience in other areas of the country and abroad where Omicron peaks have been high but have also tapered off rapidly compared to peaks driven by other coronavirus variants such as Delta.
“That’s the silver lining,” said Matt Binnicker, Mayo’s director of clinical virology. “It’s a crazy roller coaster ride of a fast rise to the peak, then a quick drop-off from there.”
However, given that current infection rates are higher than they’ve ever been, a decline from sky-high numbers will still mean case numbers will be higher for a period of time than during fall’s Delta-driven wave. The impact on healthcare systems will be tempered somewhat because Omicron is resulting in less serious illness and hospitalizations overall.
Meanwhile, the widely cited model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington suggests that Minnesota already reached its peak on Monday. Case data reports from the Minnesota Department of Health are still days away from lending credence to that assessment, but the most recent report reflecting 10,651 new cases from Jan. 13 remained consistent with high case loads in the preceding seven days.
However, if the most recent and short-lived trend in St. Louis County continues, the peak could possibly have passed here.
County case numbers are reported by the date specimens were collected, a process that causes county reporting to lag slightly behind state reports. But the trend has been significantly downward since hitting a seven-day average high of 276.3 on Jan. 9, a county record for the pandemic. By Jan. 13, that average had decreased to 153.6, a potentially encouraging development, although still well above case averages in mid-December.
The numbers for the northern part of the county, however, are mixed.
On the positive side, the biweekly case rate used for schools has dropped below 50 for the first time in several months, coming in at 46.44, the lowest of any region in the county. However, since the most recent measure covers the last two weeks of December, that number will likely go up again when the reporting period includes the first week of January.
Data for the week ending Jan. 2 were less encouraging, as cases reported in those between the ages of 10 and 39 more than tripled in the northern part of the county from the prior week, jumping from 12 to 37, and smaller increases were posted for all other ages.
The most recent North Country zip code case data monitored by the Timberjay also revealed cases continue to climb. The Jan. 13 report showed a weekly increase of 37 cases in Ely, and a two-week total of 57 cases, about the same number reported in the prior four weeks. Although less dramatic, six new cases were reported last week for Cook, four in Embarrass, seven in Orr, five in Tower, and two in Soudan.
Bois Forte Health Services most recently reported four new cases on Jan. 14 and a total of 39 active cases, 27 at Nett Lake and 12 at Vermilion. Eleven of those cases involved individuals under the age of 18.