Reason for optimism?

Hunters should have more opportunities to target a buck in permit areas in northern St. Louis and Lake counties when they head to their deer stands beginning a half hour before sunrise on Saturday.
This year’s opener is a few days later than average, which means whitetails could be fully into the rut during the first week of the regular firearms season, which runs through Nov. 22.
“I’m optimistic,” said Jessica Holmes, Tower area wildlife manager for the Department of Natural Resources, who spoke to the Timberjay late last week. “We’re seeing more deer activity. The pre-rut activity has picked up a lot in the last week,” she said.
Holmes, who hunts north of Ely, said she’s been picking up active bucks on her own trail cams.
Following a third straight mild-moderate winter, deer numbers appear to be continuing to increase, and Holmes said that’s born out by field reports from her staff as well as from conversations with area residents.
“In [PA] 177, we’re seeing 10-20 deer in some fields, compared to not a lot last year,” she said. She said more deer are also apparent right now in Embarrass, where they are often feeding on grass along road ditches.
Hunter success has been on a slow increase since the 2023 season, which followed two tough winters in a row. According to DNR wildlife biologists, winter severity is the primary driver of deer survival in the North Country and harvest data typically conforms closely with the winter severity index tracked each year by the DNR.
Hunters in the region have been critical of DNR management and frequently blame the region’s gray wolf population for the declines in the deer harvest. While wolves, as a top predator, certainly affect deer numbers, the history of the region’s deer herd has shown that whitetails can thrive in the region even with high wolf numbers.
Wildlife officials note that habitat is a key driver of deer survival and point to changes in the forest, such as an overabundance of middle-aged aspen, that are providing fewer acres of quality habitat than in the past.
Analyzing area deer harvests
DNR data confirms that deer harvests in northern St. Louis and Lake counties have declined significantly since 2017, which was the high watermark for hunter success in the region since 2010.
But a closer analysis of both harvest and hunter data, suggests the decline is not what it seems. That’s based on the Timberjay’s review of harvest data and deer licenses sold from permit areas (or PAs) 117, 118, 119, 130, 176, 177, and 178. The analysis did not include data from PAs 107 and 109 because the boundaries of those areas have changed since 2017.
In 2017, hunters registered a total of 7,827 deer in the seven PAs cited above. In 2025, by contrast, hunters registered 3,487 deer in those same seven PAs, representing less than half the harvest of eight years earlier.
But deer registrations, by themselves, are a poor indicator of a region’s deer population since other factors play a major role in harvest totals.
In 2017, antlerless deer— which include adult does and fawns of either sex— comprised fully 39 percent of the harvest, while antlerless registrations made up just ten percent of the harvest in 2025.
Because the number of antlerless permits issued by the DNR has a major impact on hunter success, comparing buck harvest provides a more accurate comparison, assuming that hunters will opt to shoot a buck over a doe if given the opportunity. In 2017, hunters in those seven PAs registered a total of 4,755 bucks. Eight years later, in 2025, hunters registered 3,133 bucks in those same areas, a 34-percent decline over 2017 registrations.
So, does that reflect a 34-percent decrease in the buck population in those permit areas? Unlikely.
Total deer harvests are also a function of hunter numbers, as long as hunters aren’t overcrowded, which is rarely an issue here in the North Country.
In 2017, a total of 26,167 hunters bought licenses in the seven PAs included in this analysis. In 2025, hunters purchased 17,781 deer licenses in those same areas. That’s a drop of 32 percent, which closely mirrors the drop in the buck harvest.
In 2017, which most area hunters would collectively consider a successful season, 18 percent of hunters who purchased a license registered a buck. In 2025, a season that left many hunters grumbling, a nearly identical 17.6 percent of licensed hunters registered a buck.
That suggests that the sharp decline in the number of antlerless deer permits, which affects total hunter success and the number of hunters willing to hunt in the region, is the biggest factor driving lower deer registrations in the area.
That decline in antlerless permits came as the DNR responded to a series of heavy snow winters, which led to significant losses in the deer population in northeastern Minnesota. The drop in antlerless permits inevitably reduced the region’s deer harvest significantly. Fewer opportunities to take antlerless deer also discouraged many from hunting in the region altogether. Every one of the seven permit areas examined for this report saw a significant decline in total hunter licenses sold between 2020—when significant numbers of antlerless tags were still being issued— and 2025. PA 177, where antlerless registrations had previously made-up 50 percent or more of the deer harvest in some years, the shift to effectively bucks-only reduced deer license sales by 23 percent between 2020 and 2025. PA 176 was hit even harder, as license sales dropped 34 percent during that same period.
Meanwhile, statewide deer license sales declined by just five percent over that same period, which indicates that many hunters opted to hunt in parts of the state where antlerless tags were still being issued, rather than quit hunting altogether.
Most of the permit areas that shifted to bucks-only in the wake of the heavy snow winters of the early 2020s, were located in the northeastern part of the state, where snowfall was heaviest.
Fewer hunters inevitably lead to fewer deer registrations, for both antlerless deer and adult bucks.
The DNR could increase the number of antlerless permits it issues in the region, a move that would boost hunter success and the perception of a rebounding deer herd. But the agency’s modeling, combined with field reports and harvest data, suggests that the population is still below goal. That conclusion offers one primary tool to rebuild the population, which is a reduction or elimination of antlerless permits.
But if the agency’s conclusion is based, in part, on harvest data that may appear worse than it is, the DNR may have room to maneuver on those permits in the years ahead. With another mild, possibly record mild, winter appearing likely, deer hunters do indeed have reason for optimism.

DNR’s NE Minnesota report
Per the DNR:
“Deer populations in the northeast region of the state are variable. This year was favorable for reproduction, and hunters should see more deer. However, populations in the far northeast portion of the region remain low, and winter severity was high, with snow remaining into spring. In these areas, bag limits remain conservative to give local deer populations a chance to grow.
The best deer harvest opportunities will be in the southern portion of this region, where deer numbers are higher and winter conditions were mild. Hunters should look for a mix of cover types and scout ahead of time for the best success.
Changes to DPAs in this region include a shift from bucks-only to lottery in DPAs 169, 176, and 199. Additionally, there were increased numbers of lottery permits available in many DPAs in the southern portion of the region.”