To get votes, candidates promote various federal subsidized programs and tax incentives that will provide economic benefits to certain groups of voters.  There are subsidies for the purchase of electric cars, child care programs, student loans, farmers, etc.  There are all sorts of tax benefits in place and proposed from which the candidates expect to garner votes.
Subsidies come in a variety forms such as cash, grants, or tax concessions of various forms. These tax concessions reduce federal tax revenue. The Committee for Responsible Federal Budget judged that Trump’s subsidy proposals would cost the government $15 trillion in lost revenue over the next ten years, while Harris’s would cost $3.5 trillion.
Since it is politically difficult to raise taxes, the alternative is to issue government bonds to fill the gap in tax revenue.  Our current national debt is $35.7 trillion which represents 125 percent of our gross domestic product (GDP) that is considered one indicator of our financial condition.  The last time our national debt exceeded 100 percent of GDP was 79 years ago when World War II ended.  Prior to the war it was 40 percent of the GDP and low as 20 percent in the 1970’s.  Our current annual debt interest costs $1.1 trillion and represents 17 percent of total federal spending.
The bond market will demand higher interest rates due to the increase in our national debt that is considered as a weakening of our financial condition.  Other countries and private investors may sell their U.S. bonds or reduce purchases of them, which could lead to higher interest rates.
If Trump wins the presidency, inflation will re-emerge with his increase in subsidies, debt, and his initiation of tariffs.  He reportedly will charge a 20-percent tariff on all imports, but he favors a 60-percent tariff on all products from China.  The price increase of the tariffs, estimated to total $4 trillion, will be added to the costs of goods sold in the U.S. It is naive to think that manufacturers will not add their additional tariff costs to the price of their products.  The combined costs of Trump’s proposed new subsidized government programs and his additional tariffs would result in extremely high inflation and send interest rates sharply higher for U.S. citizens.
The war between Israel and Iran is escalating.  According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran is closer than ever to acquiring nuclear weapons.  And now we may be confronted with possible war using nuclear weapons.  If Trump, when he was president, had not withdrawn from the nuclear agreement with Iran on May 8, 2018, the U.S. would be in a much better position to enforce the agreement. The terms of agreement were very strong on the prohibition on the development of nuclear weapons.  Moreover, it permitted International Atomic Energy Agency constant stringent oversight of their nuclear program.
Trump, with his usual bluster, said he would negotiate a better deal.  It never happened.  
Gerry Snyder
Ely