Study: Gas price surge hitting Eighth District hard

REGIONAL- North Country families appear to be taking one of Minnesota’s hardest hits from gasoline prices driven higher by the war in Iran, with households in the Eighth Congressional District facing an estimated $779 in added fuel costs since the fighting began.
The estimate comes from a recent analysis released by the Democratic minority staff of Congress’ Joint Economic Committee. The same analysis estimates that rising prices have cost the average Minnesota household more than $4,500 since President Donald Trump returned to office, about $300 more than the committee staff’s national estimate of $4,200.
The source matters here. The Joint Economic Committee is a 20-member congressional panel created to study economic conditions and advise Congress on economic policy. Its membership is evenly divided between the House and Senate, but not between the parties. The majority party in each chamber receives six seats and the minority receives four, giving Republicans a 12-8 advantage on the current committee. The majority controls the committee and its agenda, while the two parties maintain separate staffs that regularly issue their own reports.
The analysis reflects the Democratic minority’s viewpoint and attributes the higher costs to Trump administration policies, including tariffs and the war in Iran. It is not a finding approved by the Republican majority or the full committee. Its calculations, however, draw on credible sources, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Federal Highway Administration, Energy Information Administration, AAA, and Brookings Institution.
While the minority staff produced a separate fact sheet for each of Minnesota’s eight congressional districts, gasoline is the only category calculated at the district level. The housing and electricity figures are statewide, while the grocery and health insurance figures are national numbers repeated in each district report.
The Eighth District stands out in the gasoline calculations. According to the analysis, motorists in the district have spent an additional $228 million on gasoline since the Iran war began. Its estimated cost of $779 per family is second only to the $791 calculated for the largely rural Seventh District in western Minnesota.
The Eighth District estimate is about 20 percent higher than the statewide average of $651 and 11 percent above the national average of $699. It is also 57 percent higher than the $496 estimated for families in the Minneapolis-based Fifth District.
That pattern does not mean gasoline itself costs more in northern and western Minnesota. It more likely reflects how much people drive. Residents of rural districts generally travel farther for work, shopping, medical care, and other necessities, leaving them more exposed whenever fuel prices rise.
The district sheets cite federal highway mileage data, AAA prices, vehicle information from Edmunds, and an April Brookings Institution analysis that examined how driving patterns shape the household impact of higher gasoline prices. The sheets do not provide the actual formula to independently reproduce the precise $779 estimate, however.
The war-related disruption to oil markets is clearly a major factor in the gasoline spike, although it is not the only one. While disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Middle Eastern refining capacity have tightened global supplies, domestic problems have added to the squeeze, including the September shutdown of a major refinery near Chicago that supplies the Midwest. Limited domestic shipping capacity and federal restrictions on which vessels can carry fuel between U.S. ports have also made it more difficult and expensive to move supplies where they are needed. Families in vehicle-dependent areas buy more gallons, so they absorb more of any resulting increase.
For the other categories, the fact sheets use statewide or national figures.
The committee staff estimates that Minnesota households have paid an additional $688 for housing since Trump took office. That is notably less than its national estimate of $833.
Minnesota also fares somewhat better in the report’s electricity calculations. It estimates that Minnesota families spent $90 more on electricity in 2025 than in 2024, compared with a national increase of $110. For the first six months of 2026, it calculates an additional $58 for Minnesota families compared with the first half of 2024, versus $106 nationally.
Those figures raise an unanswered question about the broader totals. Minnesota’s reported increases for housing, gasoline, and electricity are all below the corresponding national figures, yet the minority staff estimates the overall household impact in Minnesota at $4,500, or $300 more than the national estimate. The fact sheets do not provide a detailed enough breakdown to show which categories account for that difference.
The grocery figures are national rather than Minnesota-specific. The report estimates that Americans spent $310 more for groceries during Trump’s first year in office than they did in 2024, with grocery prices rising more than four percent since he took office.
The health insurance figures are national as well. The report says average monthly premiums for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans rose by more than 50 percent in 2026, while average deductibles increased by more than $1,000 following the expiration of enhanced federal premium assistance.
Taken as a whole, the figures show that higher prices have imposed significant additional costs on Minnesota households. The district comparisons also suggest that the gasoline spike has landed especially hard on rural, vehicle-dependent regions such as northeastern Minnesota, where driving long distances is often less a matter of choice than a fact of daily life.