REGIONAL — The notion that young people are fleeing northeastern Minnesota in droves has been an enduring topic of local conversations for years, but new data suggests the story isn’t quite so simple.
While the region’s population under 25 has declined over the past two decades, a closer look shows that an exodus of young people isn’t the primary factor driving the change. Instead, it’s the declining birth rate that’s playing a bigger role.
A recent analysis by Carson Gorecki, Northeast Minnesota regional analyst for the Department of Employment and Economic Development, dives into migration and education trends to see where young people are going after high school and, importantly, how many are sticking around.
One of the more surprising findings? A solid share of young adults raised in the northeastern Minnesota do stay, and others leave and later return.
In Duluth, for example, which anchors the southern portion of St. Louis County, about two-thirds of those who were 16 a decade ago were still in the area at 26. Some never left. Others came back after living elsewhere. That return pattern is known as boomerang migration, and while more commonly tracked in broader state research, it’s a known trend in smaller communities in northeastern Minnesota as well.
That said, retention rates vary. Counties like Itasca and Koochiching held on to just over half their young people in the last decade, while places like Cook County saw more than six in ten young adults head elsewhere. Still, these rates haven’t changed much over time, suggesting the idea of an accelerating youth exodus may be more myth than reality.
The report also looked at what students do right after high school, another key turning point. There are fewer graduates now than 15 years ago, but that’s largely because there are simply fewer students overall – a reflection of falling birthrates across the region. And with fewer graduates, fewer are going straight to college. But that’s not necessarily a sign of decline. In fact, more are entering the workforce directly.
Back in 2009, about one-in-five grads skipped college to go straight into a job. By 2023, that share had climbed to more than one-in-three. While the state doesn’t track where those grads found work, local labor patterns suggest many likely stayed close to home.
Local colleges still play a major role in keeping young adults in the region. Just over half of the regional 2023 grads who went to college enrolled somewhere in northeastern Minnesota or nearby northwestern Wisconsin. And the region remains a draw for students from outside the area, attracting a larger share of statewide high school grads than its population share would suggest. Research has long shown that students who attend college in a particular region are more likely to stay and work there afterward, giving these institutions a significant role in regional workforce stability.
So, yes, some young people leave, but quite likely fewer than the conventional wisdom holding sway at morning coffee klatches. And many eventually return. The data shows that northeastern Minnesota is not hemorrhaging its youth nearly as fast as many believe, and institutions here still offer a strong anchor for both retaining young people and attracting new ones to the area.