REGIONAL— The North Country is on track to set a new mark for the warmest winter in the historical record. While the books weren’t quite closed on January when the Timberjay went to press this week, this past month will rank among the top ten warmest Januarys on record. Combined with December’s astonishing warmth, the December through January period is running at an average of 20.4 degrees at International Falls, the weather station with the longest period of record in the region.
That shatters the previous warmest December-January average temperature of 17.3 degrees set back in the winter of 1913-14, according to Pete Boulay, state climatologist.
“This year is number one by a lot,” said Boulay, who noted that overnight lows in particular have contributed to the exceptional warmth this winter. According to the National Weather Service, residents of the North Country can expect to wake up to a Friday morning low this week in the low 20s, or over 80 degrees warmer than the cold record mark of minus 60 degrees, which was set in Tower on the same date back in 1996. That’s also about 30 degrees warmer than the average low for Feb. 2, which is minus 7.9 degrees F in Tower and minus 5.5 degrees F in International Falls. The average Feb. 2 high in the border city is 17.6 degrees.
Barring a dramatic change in February, the winter of 2023-24 is almost certain to end up as the warmest ever recorded in northern Minnesota. And, based on the extended forecast from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, there appears to be no end to the extraordinary warmth. The latest 8-14 day outlook, which is valid through Feb. 13, shows a continued high probability of above normal temperatures, a pattern which is expected across virtually the entire eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 states.
Unlike recent predictions, however, the latest outlook suggests above-normal precipitation. Given the forecasted warmth, the only real question is whether that precipitation will fall as rain or snow.
Despite the warmth, the North Country has managed, so far, to hold onto its snowcover, which fell in mid-January during the only cold outbreak of the winter so far. Boulay noted that snow is harder to melt in January than in March and April, even with the recent warm temperatures. That’s because the late January and early February sun doesn’t have the strength that it will have in another month or two. “It’s harder to burn off the morning clouds and fog as well, because the sun is still low in the sky this time of year,” said Boulay.
Those clouds, and the area’s snowcover, is expected to keep northern Minnesota significantly cooler over the next ten days than is forecasted for more southerly parts of the state, where snow is limited or absent. A few hours of afternoon sun in Minneapolis on Monday of this week pushed the high temperature there to a jaw-dropping 50 degrees F.
“We just kind of wandered around outside in a daze,” said Boulay. “We had to check the calendar to remind us it was still January.”